If Whitsunday is the strangest seat in Queensland to try and work out, McAllister is the second most weird seat to work out.
This is because PHON is not running here however BraveHearts CEO Hetty Johnston is running as an Independent.
This is a new seat. The Labor Candidate here is Melissa McMahon who ran for Albert in 2015 against the LNP MP Mark Boothman, who is now contesting the seat of Theodore.
The LNP Candidate for this seat is Beenleigh local and wife of LNP MP for Forde, Bert van Manen.
This one will come down to Hetty Johnston preferences.
The decision of PHON not to stand here is sheer insanity from the position of our team.
Prediction: Labor Gain
This has been a target seat for the LNP ever since they lost it in a close race in 2015. This is a seat based ostensibly on the Livingstone Shire Council boundaries. The LNP Candidate for the seat is Peter Blundell who is the brother of famous musician, James Blundell. Blundell has been attacked locally for being a 'blow in' from Stanthorpe and for starting his campaign by attacking the popular Mayor of Livingstone, Bill Ludwig.
The incumbent here is Brittany Lauga who won the seat in 2015. Lauga is considered one of the better campaigners that Labor has in the regions and has had to step in to fix the campaign of Labor's in Rocky.
However, this seat is a genuine three-way. PHON has put up Matthew Loth for the seat who has run a good grassroots campaign with lots of support from Pauline Hanson herself with her frequent visits. This is a seat that PHON hopes to upset the apple cart in.
This will be difficult though as PHON will find it hard to get space in seats like this where both the major parties are making a serious play for the seat. Our teams believe that Rockhampton is a better chance then Keppel for PHON.
Prediction: LNP gain
This outer Brisbane based seat was won by Tim Mander in 2012 and 2015. Since then Mander has run in (and lost) two leadership elections for the LNP leadership. Mander is against David Greene from the MUA. The MUA is loading up the seat from activists from all over the place to get one of their own into Parliament.
This will be a tight seat under CPV.
Prediction: Too Close to Call
This seat on the south side of Brisbane is one of the key seats to watch in the spectrum of the entire election. This seat was a marginal seat after the 2015 election when now Shadow Attorney General, Ian Walker held on to the seat for the LNP. This is shown by the number of funding commitments both sides of politics have made in the seat (and surrounding seats to benefit the seat).
However, with the redistribution sending the seat into parts of Mt Gravatt from Greenslopes the seat has been turned into a nominally Labor seat.
Labor has run a solid on the ground campaign with their local candidate, Corinne McMillan who is a local High School Principal.
The wildcard here, is former deli-boy and one time LNP MP Neil Symes who is running for the seat for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON). The LNP defector left the LNP after realising he would not win a preselection in a safer LNP seat. Instead he is running in Mansfield (where he has not much of a chance of winning) and is preferencing against the LNP as a part of the ‘sitting members last’ policy announced by PHON.
This will be the major test for the LNP to see whether they can court the 60%+ of PHON preferences that some in the LNP circles think that they can get from PHON voters. They will need this sort of preference flow to have a hope of holding on here.
Prediction: Probable Labor Gain (watch the PHON preferences) - almost too close to call
This is traditionally a bellwether seat which was won by Bob Harper for the Liberal Party (RIP Bob) in 1995, lost in 1998 and then regained for the LNP in 2012 by Tarnya Smith. For many it was a surprise that Tarnya Smith held on after the routing in 2015.
However, with the redistribution sending the seat into Darra from Inala, this has also made the seat a nominally Labor seat.
In this seat though, the LNP ground game is far superior to Labor’s and the Labor candidate is far weaker here then in a seat like Mansfield (Jessica Pugh is running again).
The other thing to note in this seat is that the Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Candidate (PHON) is Ian Eugarde. His on the ground campaign is non-existent. Therefore, he will get what the proverbial ‘drovers dog’ would get on a PHON corflute.
In our view on about 55% of PHON preferences, Tarnya is re-elected. On anything less, it is nerve wracking.
This is a seat where Labor’s CPV voting changes could cut both ways for Labor.
Prediction: Too Close to Call
Many people would ask why on earth has the GravisPolitics team got Maiwar in the list of competitive seats? Well the answer is simple. Under Optional Preferential Voting (OPV), this seat would never be a part of the equation.
However, under CPV the Labor + Greens equation puts this seat clearly in the picture as a possible gain for Labor.
This seat is a combination of suburbs from the former electorate of Mt Coot-tha (currently held by the fleeing Steve Miles) and current Shadow Treasurer, Scott Emerson (currently in Indooroopilly). This has cut the LNPs nominal margin to 3%.
The new LNP margin of 3.0% compares to 6.7% for Indooroopilly and a Labor margin of 2.6% for Mount Coot-tha. The first preference results based on the 2015 election are LNP 47.7%, Labor 29.1% and Greens 20.4%.
We can’t see a situation where Emerson holds this seat unless he pulls his primary up to atleast 46%. Otherwise the Labor + Green vote would defeat him with an 85% preference flow rate.
Prediction: Possible Labor Gain
We have this in the LNP v ALP section but it is really a three-way race between the LNP, ALP and PHON in the seat.
The seat is currently held by LNP Shadow Agriculture Minister, Dale Last who won the seat in 2015 after Rosemary Menekens retired and he survived the 2015 routing.
Labor is fielding former Mayor of the Bowen Shire and current Whitsunday Councillor Mike ‘Moscow’ Brunker and PHON is standing in this seat, their Deputy Queensland Leader and former LNP MP for Thuringowa, Sam Cox.
This seat is on paper, nominally a Labor seat with a margin of around 1.5% (without PHON in it).
Wulguru and the outer suburbs of Townsville have been transferred to Mundingburra. The seat then gains Moranbah from the abolished seat of Dalrymple, Clermont from Gregory and areas around Dysart from Mirani. These changes increase the mining vote in the district and overturn the LNP's majority.
This therefore makes Burdekin the ‘mining and sugar’ seat and takes all the mining voters out of the seat of Mirani which is also a marginal seat in this section (which we will deal with later).
In the polling we have seen and completed in the seat, it has been a statistical three way dead heat. However, in every sample, the PHON Candidate is third in the samples (by less then any margin of error). In that equation, with a 50% preference flow, Dale Last would survive. In three way splits though, predicting things is sheer madness.
We note that this seat will come down to a handful of votes to determine who’s preferences distribute. If the LNP distribute, PHON win. If ALP distribute, LNP win, If PHON distribute, its anyones to win.
In relation to PHON preferences in the seat, we note two things. One, there is a large percentage of the PHON vote coming from disaffected blue-collar unionised voters in places such as Bowen, Collinsville, Dysart and Moranbah. In all of the GravisPolitics touch preference models, Labor voters defecting the PHON are 85% likely to give Labor their second preference to the LNP. The other factor which flows into that is that PHON are preferencing Labor ahead of the LNP (which is weird on policy grounds but tactically a part of the PHON plan).
Prediction: Too Close to Call
If the LNP don’t win this, the LNP campaign team deserve a bullet. After three years of scandal against the now former ALP sitting member (Rick Williams), a massive ‘flick rick’ campaign and on the eve of the election having Labor disendorse the sitting member which triggered the election, this is the LNP’s to lose.
Rick Williams only got elected on 41% of the primary vote in 2015, making him one of the worst performing MPs to enter the Parliament in 2015.
However, to the shock of many, popular former LNP MP Lisa France did not recontest the seat. Instead the LNP is standing newbie, Simone Wilson.
Historical fact, this seat forms a part of the former seat of Caboolture which was a PHON seat in 1998 and the home of former leader of One Nation, Bill Feldman. We therefore see a situation where the PHON preference flows from the booths on Bribie Island too the LNP should see Simone Wilson elected.
Prediction: LNP gain
This is a seat that after the 2015 election, the margin was as such that Labor was always going to have a go to win this seat in 2017. The Labor Party are running Brent Hampstead again for the seat who contested the seat in 2015. However, being a candidate not funded by a major union, his campaign is not as well put together and funded as other Labor campaigns in target marginal seats.
The seat has been held by Shadow Transport and Main Roads Minister Andrew Powell who won the seat in 2009 (after former Labor Member Carolyn Male fled after a bad redistribution).
Our GravisPolitics team believes that this seat is probably a step too far for Labor to pick up in this electoral cycle. Published polling has the LNP leading in Glass House with a decent margin.
However, the margins on the primary vote in this mean that the PHON decision to preference Labor ahead of the LNP in the seat means that there has been some retaliatory action in the seat to try and protect it for Andrew Powell.
The PHON Candidate here is Tracey Bell-Henselin. Her campaign got off to a bad start after her social media was revealed to be heavily homophobic.
On the day, expect to see people from the group RiteOn handing out how to vote cards urging PHON voters to ignore the PHON How to Vote (HTV) and to preference the LNP over Labor. This is largely as a result of conservative voters backlash against the PHON decision to preference their local sitting MP (who is a conservative) behind a Labor candidate.
In combination with this, the seat has been hit with robocalls from Cherish Life and Sunshine Coast Safe Communities urging voters to put Labor last on the back of issues such as power prices, unemployment and abortion.
Fundamentally, we see a situation where the 25%+ that PHON is polling coming largely from the LNP. This will mean that if PHON preferences flow at anything around 50% or more would see the LNP retain the seat.
Prediction: LNP retain