With New Zealand heading to the polls after what has been one of the more tumultuous campaigns since the advent of the MMP voting system; New Zealanders go to the polls. 

The basic tenants of tomorrow in our analysis go like this:

  1. The current governing arrangement (National - United Future - Act - Maori Party) will not be returned, despite this being Bill English's preferred option.
  2. The Labour-Green alliance under the Memorandum of Understanding is unlikely to be able to govern in its own right. 

United Future will lose its place in Parliament after Peter Dunne announced he was retiring as the MP for Ohariu and United Future not polling at the 5% threshold to get a List MP elected.

Whether or not Hone Harawira and his Mana Party can get elected in Tai Tokerau on the back of the 2 for 1 campaign he is running and whether or not the Maori Party can get 2 MPs back into Parliament will be critical in the dream scenario of the left where they can govern with a Labour-Green - Maori - Mana block. 

The fact remains: It is most likely that Winston Peters and his New Zealand First Party will become the King or Queenmaker to form the next Government of New Zealand. 

Winston Peters has governed with both National and Labour previously. He served as Deputy Prime Minister to Jim Bolger and Foreign Minister to Helen Clark in her third government. 

Winston Peters has already stated that he will not enter into a government with the Green Party. 

This means that the likely situations for the next government are:

  1. National - NZ First
  2. New Zealand First- Labour (with Greens in a Supply Agreement)
  3. Labour - Green - Maori - Mana

This is how we see the most likely scenarios, however, picking the combination from an MMP election is always difficult and predicting the results of negotiations to happen on a hypothetical equation of the Parliament is even more fraught.

Our team will be tweeting tomorrow night as the results come in